Contrasting Characters after Iowa

The Iowa caucuses have come and gone, and left us with one of the most intriguing outcomes imaginable. Just 8 votes separated Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, with Ron Paul just 3 percent behind the leaders. Right now, the Republican primaries have brought us three very different leading candidates, with very different styles.

It seems like there has been more press coverage of the Iowa caucuses this year than I’ve ever seen. The Republican caucus Tuesday is certainly an important first step in the nomination process, but it’s more important for weeding out candidates than for selecting an actual frontrunner. After all, in 2008 Mike Huckabee won the state handily, and eventual nominee John McCain finished 4th. But this year, it’s already eliminated Michele Bachmann and pushed Rick Perry to the brink. Jon Huntsman will make his last stand in New Hampshire, and Newt Gingrich saw his slide continue.

But the three major contenders offer actual alternatives to Republican voters.

Ron Paul is a unique candidate. He’s extremely bright, and his libertarian ideological purity makes him one of the most controversial candidates you’ll see in a Republican primary. And a libertarian-leaning place like New Hampshire is ideal for him as the next primary stop.

He brings a lot to the nomination process, but he really doesn’t have a chance of winning. His supporters are enthusiastic for him and would never leave him for another option, but his differences from typical Republicans means he has little appeal to those who support other candidates. He won’t be picking up additional votes as candidates drop out, leaving him on the outside looking in.

Rick Santorum’s rise has been fascinating. He has no speechwriter, no money, and almost no national hype before the last couple weeks. His big-government social conservatism is perfect for a state like Iowa, a farming state with a very conservative group of Republican voters.

With his emphasis on social issues, the former Pennsylvania senator found a strong audience for his culture-wars message. However, that message is not likely to resonate in New Hampshire, the next primary. He has a much better chance when the campaign goes to states like South Carolina. He’s certainly made a mark, another in a long line of conservative candidates to make a sudden rise. Will it last? We’ll find out.

Finally, the winner (if just barely) in Iowa, Mitt Romney, put up an impressive performance in a state that’s not really designed for him. Unlike Mr. Santorum, he hasn’t put much focus on social issues at all, focusing on his tremendous business background. He was the top candidate among voters who said the economy was their most important issue.

Mr. Romney is running as a problem solver, a turnaround artist. He built a magnificent company, Bain Capital, that specialized in taking struggling companies on the brink of failure and making them successful. He took over the Salt Lake City Olympics, mired in scandal and financial disaster, and wound up with one of the most successful Olympics in history.

That kind of problem-solving image should work well for him as the campaign continues. I believe Americans want a candidate who will bring leadership and find ways to make good things happen, not an ideological extremist on either side—both the liberal president and his administration and the conservative House of Representatives suffer from very low approval ratings. And that pragmatic, problem-solving niche is exactly what Mr. Romney is aiming for.

There’s a long way to go, but because of the way Mr. Romney is positioning himself, it looks like the Republican nomination is his to lose.